National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KBOU 062235
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 PM MST MON FEB 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE OUT
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
OUT OF WYOMING IS ALSO APPROACHING KCYS ABOUT NOW AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RADARS SHOW
THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS A FEW ECHOES RECENTLY POPPING UP NORTH OF FORT COLLINS. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING.
AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OUT QUICKLY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE ABOVE IT OVER WESTERN
U.S. AND CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE IN THE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS STILL KEEPING ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. NO DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS
DETERMINING HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. THE ECMWF AND
THE CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE GFS HAS
MORE RIDGING ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND KEEP SILENT POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. A SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO COME
OUT OF WYOMING BY 02Z AND REACH KDEN BY 04Z. UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE IFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. MOISTURE WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND
VSBYS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...DANKERS

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion